Biden's Dilemma: Will He Run Again in 2024?
In the midst of growing presidential ambitions among mid-generation leaders within the Democratic Party, the question of whether these leaders will challenge or hesitate to challenge President Joe Biden remains unanswered.
Governor Gavin Newsom of California, Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, and Governor Jack Shapiro of Pennsylvania are among the mid-generation Democratic leaders who are avoiding direct confrontation with Biden and are patiently awaiting his exit from the political stage to enter the presidential race.
Compared to its Republican counterpart, the Democratic Party is known for its strict rules and mechanisms, making it difficult for any party leaders or rising stars to stage a coup. This makes challenging Joe Biden a daunting task, despite his perceived decline due to aging.
For years, no one has challenged Nancy Pelosi's leadership in the House of Representatives, even though she is over 80 years old. This is in stark contrast to the Republican side, which frequently changes its leadership. Similarly, when it comes to Biden's presidential candidacy, none of the party leaders dares to deviate from party loyalty.
Biden, who will turn 81 in the coming months, is facing accelerated aging effects that could become more pronounced health-wise. With increasing chances of former President Donald Trump securing the Republican nomination for the 2024 election, Trump's influence within the Republican camp remains a key driving force behind Biden's reelection campaign. Just as in the 2020 election, Democratic leaders believe Biden is the best option to prevent Trump from winning a potentially more extreme second term. However, as the election season approaches, Democrats and their media allies are becoming increasingly concerned about Biden's declining popularity in recent opinion polls. This raises questions like: What will the Democrats do in response to this decline? Will Biden step down from running?
Recent opinion polls, indicating Biden's approval rating has dropped to below 40%, have caused unease among Democratic leaders. Biden no longer outperforms Trump in the polls as he did in the past two years, despite criminal charges against Trump in four distinct cases.
Some voices within the Democratic party, not necessarily part of its leadership, are calling on Biden to announce that he won't seek a second term. They believe Biden can step aside as a Democratic hero after defeating Trump and protecting America from a potential second Trump term. This would provide an opportunity for the party to nominate a fresh face from the new generation.
These calls for Biden not to run again are based on several objective reasons that could make it difficult for Biden to win the 2024 election, let alone serve a second term until January 2029. These objective reasons include:
Trump's Candidacy: Some Democratic leaders believe that Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination could provide another chance for the "Biden-Harris" ticket, similar to the 2020 election.
Biden's Age and Health: A recent opinion poll by The Wall Street Journal indicated that 73% of respondents believe Biden appears old enough to raise doubts about his ability to run for the presidency again. Biden will turn 81 in the next two months, and the effects of aging could become more apparent. Additionally, Biden won't have the luxury of staying out of the spotlight as he did during COVID-19 lockdowns in the previous election. His frequent stumbles while boarding the presidential plane raise concerns about his health and physical condition, prompting his team to take measures to minimize any stumbles, whether verbal or physical, that might fuel doubts about his ability to serve a second term by 2024.
Kamala Harris's Popularity: Vice President Kamala Harris is facing popularity issues. Despite being chosen by Biden in 2020 to meet the demands of minorities and the progressive wing of the party, some view her as lacking the popularity and leadership capabilities required to lead the nation.
Hunter Biden's Investigations and Family Corruption: Investigations into Hunter Biden and family corruption have resurfaced, especially with the collapse of a legal deal that shielded him from future prosecution. A federal judge rejected the deal, opening the possibility of Hunter facing criminal charges and imprisonment. These investigations could reveal embarrassing details about Joe Biden and his son's financial dealings and misuse of his father's name and connections.
Immigration Fallout: Some Republican-led states have sent thousands of undocumented immigrants to Democratic states like New York, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts, causing chaos in some cities. This negatively impacted Biden's policies and inflicted a major political wound. However, Biden has yet to challenge the progressive rule within his party regarding asylum laws, even though some Democratic officials are screaming for help. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a Biden supporter, warned Democrats that this situation could harm the party in the 2024 election if they don't take appropriate action.
In conclusion, the question of whether President Biden will run for re-election in 2024 remains uncertain, as his declining popularity, age, and various challenges pose significant obstacles to his candidacy. The Democratic Party faces a complex decision as it evaluates its options for the upcoming election.
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